November 2024 Phoenix Real Estate Market Update

A Shift to a Buyer’s Market

The Phoenix real estate market is undergoing a significant transition. With supply up 39.2% YOY and a Supply Index Trend at 85.8, inventory remains 14% below normal but has climbed steadily over the past month (+6.5 points).

Demand, while 23% below normal, is stabilizing, with the Demand Index Trend inching up to 76.7 (+1.8 points in the last 30 days). These dynamics have ushered in one of the most favorable buyer markets in a decade, rivaling brief buyer-friendly periods in 2014 and 2022.

Pricing Insights

• Average List Price per Square Foot:

  • All Active Listings: $356.61
  • Under $1M Listings: $262.56

• Average Sales Price per Square Foot:

  • Overall: $291.10 (-1.8% YOY)
  • Homes Under 2,500 SF: $266.41 (+0.6% YOY, 80% of sales)
  • Homes Over 2,500 SF: $338.97 (-5.6% YOY, 20% of sales)

• Median Sales Price:

  • Overall: $450,000 (+2.3% YOY)
  • 1,200-1,500 SF: $375,000
  • 1,500-2,000 SF: $430,000

Seller Challenges and Opportunities

Supply and Competition:

• New listings rose 13.5% YOY, reaching 8,712 in October.
• Closed sales climbed 12.1% YOY to 5,419, while listings under contract matched this trend, up 12% YOY to 4,659.

Price Adjustments:

• Price reductions surged 11.8% YOY, with 9,020 listings reduced last month.
• 54% of October sales included seller concessions, with a median concession of $10,000 (+$1,000 YOY).

Buyer’s Market Highlights

1. Median Days on Market:
   Homes are spending 41 days on market, well above the historical norm of 26-29 days.

2. Price Negotiations:
   Sellers received 97.8% of their asking price, slightly down (-0.2% YOY).

3. Listings Under Contract:
   While up 12% YOY, supply is expanding, signaling more competition for sellers.

4. Luxury Market:
   Homes over $1M are seeing slower movement, with only 55% success rates and a contract ratio of 40.7.

Local Hot Spots

Despite the broader buyer's market, several cities like Fountain Hills, Chandler, Scottsdale, Gold Canyon, El Mirage, and Tolleson remain in seller’s market territory.

Key Takeaways

• Buyers: This market presents a golden opportunity to negotiate favorable deals, especially as supply rises and price reductions remain common.
• Sellers: Success hinges on competitive pricing and strategic marketing to stand out in a crowded marketplace.

With the holidays approaching, supply is expected to dip, but the overall buyer-friendly trend is likely to persist into the new year. Whether you're buying or selling, understanding these dynamics is crucial for making the most of Phoenix’s evolving market.